De-Risking the Green Transition: Design for Adaptability
Join us for a fantastic morning at IDA in Copenhagen. Click here to sign up (for free)!
An event about future proofing our most important green transition journeys and minimizing investment risk. The event is co-organized by DTU, Implement and IDA Risk.
See the link above for the latest version of the program.
he event will showcase a new method for future proofing our important projects within maritime, infrastructure, construction and manufacturing. The speakers will share insights about adaptability and there will be an engaging panel discussion where participants can ask their burning questions.
Why Adaptability matters
Acceleration of the green transition as we can start building systems now that can accommodate game-changing technologies if and when they are available.
Pursue high risk, high reward technologies as adaptive systems will deliver a ‘good enough’ performance even if those technologies fail or are delayed.
Minimize the cost of pursuing parallel business and technology solutions as adaptive systems are designed to accommodate each solution without expensive redesign.
Minimize business risk as adaptive systems are designed to scale and contract at minimum cost, and are also designed to integrate new technologies over their life cycles.
Limit plausible worst-case scenarios by creating backup options or other choices that can be exercised if and when required.
Agenda
08.30-09.00: Breakfast
09.00-09.30 Welcome and introduction to the research project ‘Design for adaptability’ // DTU - Implement
09.30-10.00 De-risking the green transition // Mærsk McKinney Møller Center for Zero Carbon Shipping
10.00-10.30 Creating a flexible factory // Haldor Topsøe
10.30-11.00 Designing for adaptability // TBA
11.00-11.30 Panel discussion / Q&A
Background
Over the last two years, Implement and DTU worked with multiple organizations to study how they Design for Adaptability, how it accelerated their green transition, and how it mitigated critical financial risks.
The green transition requires significant investment in capital-intensive infrastructure, while also facing significant technical, market and supply chain uncertainty. How can we reconcile the need to push forward aggressively with the realities of avoiding critical financial risks?
Adaptability enables organizations to take on more uncertainty, without taking on more risk.
Designing complex engineering systems to be flexible and adaptable throughout their lifecycle has significant advantages: It lowers up-front investment – and therefore worst-case financial risks – as we only need to build what is needed right now. Adaptability gives you the option to accommodate changes and can be the best insurance you will ever buy. The ability to adapt allows us to participate in upside opportunities as demand increases. And it enables us to support emerging risky technologies, without having to depend on them.
Organizer: IDA Risk - IDA, Engineering Society
8th IDA International Risk Management Conference: AI - Risks, Regulations and Roadmaps
Join us for the 8th International Risk Management Conference hosted by IDA Risk. The theme this year is “AI - Risks, Regulations and Roadmaps”. Click here to sign up (and find the latest programme).
Program Overview
The recent surge in AI development and application has exceeded most predictions.
Leading scientists and industry experts believe AI will create unprecedented socio-economic and technological shifts, sparking intense ethical and political debates.
Robert Oppenheimer once remarked that when scientists encounter something 'technically sweet,' they can be so captivated that they postpone ethical considerations until after the innovation has occurred.
Today, AI epitomizes this allure, promising transformative changes across sectors and immense enhancements to human life.
However, its rapid advancements are sounding alarms throughout the field. Notable AI experts urge regulatory measures to prevent uncontrollable outcomes, with over a thousand tech leaders even advocating for a halt in AI development due to its significant societal risks.
The conference will address the balancing act of regulation: seeking to ensure neither too little nor too much. While we'll present and discuss major societal threats posed by AI, we'll also consider the missed opportunities if stringent regulations hinder AI-based scientific, economic, and general human progress.
The planned EU Act on AI, creating the world's first comprehensive AI legal framework, aims to address these concerns. It not only speaks to AI's dual risks but also positions Europe at the forefront of global AI governance. Therefore, the principles and possible implementations of the EU Act will be a primary conference theme. Our distinguished speakers represent business, science, development, regulation, and legal and ethical oversight.
Organizer: IDA Risk - IDA, Engineering Society
Agenda
08:30 Registration / breakfast
09:00 Welcome
09:10 Plenary: AI Perspectives; risk issues at stake, the EU Act on AI
10:20 Coffee break / Networking / Exhibitions
10:40 Separate sessions I
12:10 Lunch / Networking / Exhibitions
13:10 Separate sessions II
14:20 Break
14:30 Separate sessions III
15:40 Refreshments / Networking / Exhibitions
16:00 Plenary session Rounding off and panel debate
16:45 End of conference - Thank you
PhD Defense Jin Zhang: Evaluating Artifical Neural Network Robustness for Safety-Critical Systems
One of our fabulous PhD Students, Jin Zhang, is defending her fantastic thesis where she pushes the boundaries on how design, use and validate artificial neural networks for safety critical applications.
Here thesis is not (yet) online, but please find the the abstract below. You can one of Jin’s papers here: Testing and verification of neural-network-based safety-critical control software: A systematic literature review
Abstract:
With the power to perform more complex tasks than humans, artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been applied to execute tasks in safety-critical systems (SCSs), such as object detection, image recognition, and navigation. An ANN should provide consistent performance when input deviates from the training data. This corresponds to the attribute of robustness in the ANN.
The obstacles to developing robust ANN-based safety-critical systems (ANN-SCSs) encompass four interrelated aspects: 1) the inherent complexity and nonlinearity of ANNs that call for innovative testing and verification (T&V) techniques; 2) the need to establish a well-defined connection between robustness and safety by considering various factors; 3) the vital nature of addressing the immaturity of robustness evaluation and measurement to ensure the seamless integration of ANNs in safety-critical applications in operation; and 4) the development of precise and practical robustness measurement in operation without labeled data. It is vital to have methods to accommodate the ever-changing nature of real-world data and the diversity of ANN architectures and use cases. Consequently, addressing these four challenges holistically is essential to facilitate a safe and reliable transition toward incorporating ANNs in SCSs.
This thesis provides knowledge on ANN robustness evaluation in the context of SCSs. It develops new knowledge, methods, and guidance, combining traditional risk analysis concepts with convolutional neural network theory and robustness studies. Four main research papers have been published and submitted as a result of the work in this thesis. These papers together provide scientific contributions to 1) the systematization of knowledge and understanding for T&V of ANN-SCSs; 2) a new method for analyzing the influence of ANN robustness on the safety of autonomous vehicles; 3) a systematic summary of methods and metrics to measure ANN-SCS robustness in operation; and 4) empirical results that demonstrate the applicability of distance metrics in selecting more robust ANN models from several alternatives using unlabeled data in operation. The systematization of knowledge, the method to evaluate ANN robustness, and insights on the advantages and disadvantages of the corresponding metrics pave the way for a future where the robustness and safety of ANN-SCSs can be quantified and enhanced, ensuring improved operational safety and effectiveness in real-world scenarios.
Keynote at the 64th Congress of the European Organization for Quality (EOQ)
I am speaking at the 64th Congress of the European Organization for Quality (EOQ) 2023 in Porto.
My talk will explore the ins and outs of Resilience Thinking for quality managers - and whether quality management hinders or helps innovation!
Sign up here and join us in Porto: https://eoqcongress2023.apq.pt/program/
Update:
My talk is on the internet! If you have half an hour, you can check it out here: https://youtu.be/1La9OLFpLJE?t=2972
Join us at the Danish Project Management Symposium 2023
Join us at the 2023 Danish Project Management Symposium in Billund from October 26-27!
We will speak on the value of risk management, and focus on the often paradoxical reasons for why organizations (or maybe better: individuals in organizations) engage in risk management.
Here are the 10 reasons! :-)
(Read the nerdy version here: Pelle Willumsen, Josef Oehmen, Verena Stingl, Joana Geraldi: Value creation through project risk management, International Journal of Project Management, Volume 37, Issue 5, 2019, Pages 731-749, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2019.01.007)
We do risk management because it creates transparency. Risk management is helpful for managers, because it helps to understand what we know and what we do not know. It also helps us understand what the maturity of our activties and deliverables are, and what the most important item is on our todo list.
We avoid risk management because it creates transparency. For the same reason that risk management is seen as value-adding, we often also see it as value-destroying. In many instances, we need to "wing" a project, without letting our bosses and clients know. In many cases, they agree, because knowing the real state of our project would also get them into trouble.
We do risk management because it creates formalized reporting channels. Risk management creates value by formalizing critical conversations about critical risks that we face, what mitigation actions are at our disposal, and what the status of actions is that we have already taken.
We do risk management because it creates dialogue. This is sometimes (but not always) at odds with the previous statement. Risk management workshops for example are often seen as creating value by facilitating important conversations, and that value is not necessarily captured by the formal report these meetings produce.
We do risk management because it supports standardization of project execution. Standardization of project management is the foundation that any continuous improvement process depends on, and therefore ultimately a critical element of any organization striving for project excellence. A formal project risk management process encourages process standardization, as it facilitates many risk management activities.
We do risk management because it creates flexibility. Again, this sometimes, but not always, contradicts the previous point. Risk management creates a channel to escalate issues above the formal project execution process. It gives license to project managers (and other project team members) to reach out across hierarchical and organizational boundaries, thus supporting rapid issue resolution.
We do risk management to support fact-based decision making. Risk management offers a range of formalized, repeatable, quantitative methods. These methods allow us to collect and analyze the available data, and represent the results in a standardized format to support rational discussion and decision making.
We do risk management to support gut-feeling decisions. Some individuals like risk management methods, because it gives them the opportunity to post-rationalize gut-feeling based decisions. We can now have a long argument about the advantages and disadvantages of "gut feeling" (or heuristics or simple rules, if you want to give them a little more credit). Formal risk management method can be used to challenge and complement these gut feelings. They can also be used to massage input numbers until the desired result is achieved. The second option is generally not a good idea, even if it is very useful to the individual.
We do risk management because it allows us to be proactive. Risk management enables us to foresee the most likely and most severe risks, allowing us to stop them before they even happen. We can select reliable partners, diversify our supply chain, or eliminate unproven technical components from our designs. On a sidenote, it is unfortunately very hard to claim credit for a disaster not happening.
We do risk management because it allows to be reactive. Reacting fast in a crisis when a risk materializes is complementary to proactive risk management. It is also a much more effective career strategy, as managing a crisis is so much more visible than preventing one from occuring in the first place. Good risk management allows us to have the necessary financial and operational reserves, as well as sensitizes us to look out for the development of specific critical scenarios.
GPM Keynote: Artificial Intelligence for Project Risk Management - How Hard Can it Be?
I will speak, together with Dr. Udo Hielscher from Bosch, Director Corporate Project Management, at the GPM Deutsche Gesellschaft für Projektmanagement (German Association for Project Management).
Our talk will focus on 5 key questions (and paradoxes) of better using AI capabilities in our organizations when it comes to project risk management.
The 5 questions:
What is the risk management problem we are trying to solve?
What data do we use?
What analytical capabilities do we need?
How do we leverage Hybrid Intelligence across humans and computers?
What are our organizational capability gaps?
If you have an intelligent answer to any of these questions, please send me a note and I will make sure to steal your answer for the next time I talk about this subject!!
To risk, or not to risk - Sharing the risk for circular solutions in municipal projects
Bloxhub and the Danish Embassies in the Nordics are running an event series on exploring and facilitating the use of circular practices in municipal construction projects. The construction industry is facing major sustainability challenges, one of which is the extraordinary amount of waste that it generates - up to 40% of the total volume of waste in developed societies.
In my keynote, I will discuss 5 critical questions to enable more and more ambitous circularity projects in the construction industry:
Are we focusing on the right risks?
What is our baseline comparison?
What are our key sources of uncertainty?
What is your risk management religion?
What is the risk profile you are facing?
I will wrap up my talk with some of my favourite talking points: Adaptability, Standardization, and Modularity! :-)
Charles Univesity Prague - Research Seminar: Future-Proofing of Public Policies and Projects Through Enhanced Risk Governance
Join us at Charles University in Prague for a research seminar with the Policy Program. I will talk about the role that adaptive risk governance plays (or maybe: should play) when we design public policies that require significant CAPEX investments, such as tunnels, bridges or energy infrastructure.
Contact me if you are in the area and want to join us!
Risk Management for the Sustainable Transformation in the Construction Industry
Værdibyg is organizing an industry and government stakeholder on the theme of risk barriers to the green transition of the construction industry. Cooperation partners are BAT kartellet, Bygherreforeningen, Danske Arkitektvirksomheder, DI Byggeri, Foreningen af Rådgivende Ingeniører and TEKNIQ Arbejdsgiverne).
The event will take place in the “Black Diamond”, the National Library in Copenhagen.
I will be giving a keynote talk titled “Risks in Sustainable Construction: What if… we cannot plan away uncertainty?”
You find more information (in Danish) here: https://vaerdibyg.dk/workshop-gik-i-dybden-med-risikobarrierer/
Concept Program of Norway: Rethinking Cost Risk Management
I will be speaking at the bi-annual Symposium of the Norwegian Concept Program.
The Symposium is invitation-only, but I am happy to share my talk (and all the other material that is presented and produced at the symposium). I will be speaking on some new perspectives on cost risk management, especially the role that adaptability and flexibility can play in bringing down cost overruns and schedule delays.
The Norwegian Concept Program is a fantastic academia - government cooperation, looking to strengthen the project management performance of taxpayer-financed CAPEX projects. Read more about the Concept Program here.
10th DTU Risk Forum: Masterclass on the Human Side of Risk Management
Join us for the 10th DTU Risk Forum, jointly organized by DTU, IDA Risk, and the University of Twente!
Sign up here: Participation numbers are strictly limited to 15 participants from Denmark and the Netherlands each, so we expect this event to “sell out” quick (update: It did, but you are welcome to sign up for the waiting list.)
More information
Climate change, cyber risks, war, supply chain collapses, pandemics: Risk management was never more important for your organization - nor was it more difficult.
This masterclass and workshop will highlight the most important - and most often overlooked - aspect of risk management: The human side beyond the formalized risk management process.
Join us if you want to
Learn about and discuss how to turn every activity in your organization into a risk management activity - not "just" your risk management process.
Learn how to leverage shortcuts and simple rules to make better risk decisions - instead of constantly fighting them with formalized processes.
Hear from Thomas Boye Dyregaard, Head of Global Security & Business Resilience at A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S about how to prepare your organization for anything - not everything, by reducing bureaucracy and emphaszing the human side of business continuity.
Spend a day with a select group of risk management professionals (15 from the Netherlands, 15 from Denmark) to share experiences and stories
Learn about some of the latest research results in the risk management space.
The day will be facilitated by Prof. Dr. Josef Oehmen (DTU) and Prof. Dr. Verena Stingl (AAU).
Program
08:00: Breakfast snacks and chats
09:00: Welcome
09:20: Industry Impulse Talk + Q&A (1): how to prepare your organization for anything - not everything. (Thomas Boye Dyregaard, Head of Global Security & Business Resilience at A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S)
10:00: Talk + Discussion: What if... everything is risk management? The best risk management is no risk management (Josef Oehmen & everyone)
10.30: Networking break
10:45: Workshop 1: Re-Thinking Risk Management: Leveraging informal and implicit processes to advance risk management (Group Work, Knowledge Café and Report-Out)
12:15: Lunch
13:00: Talk & Discussion: How humans make decisions under uncertainty, and why we should aim to foster, not fix some of these decision strategies (Verena Stingl & everyone)
13:30: Workshop 2: Putting risk management heuristics to work (Group Work, Knowledge Café and Report-Out)
15:00: Networking Reception
16:00: Program ends
Participation is free of charge for the participants from Denmark. The University of Twente graciously covers all expenses for this event.
Keynote at ICQEM 2022
I will be giving a keynote at the 5th International Conference on Quality Engineering and Management, hosted in Portugal this year. We are all keeping our fingers crossed that we will have a face-to-face conference!
I will be speaking on the relationship of risk management and quality management, and present three lessons learned for quality management in the digital area.
I will update the entry when we have the formal announcement in place! :-)
IDA International Risk Management Conference
We have a fantastic program for this years International IDA Risk Management Conference!
Read all about it here and register today:
https://ida.dk/arrangementer-og-kurser/arrangementer/international-risk-management-conference-34433
Join us at MARESEC 2022
Josef is on the Program Committee for MARESEC 2022. If you have an interest in the resilience of maritime transportation or energy systems, this is the place to be! We hope to see you there!
You can find more information here: https://dlr.expert/maresec2022/front/index.php
Important dates (at the time of posting):
Abstract Submission Deadline: March 01, 2022
Notification of Acceptance: May 09, 2022
Registration Deadline: June 13, 2022
Conference date: June 20, 2022
Full paper submission Deadline: July 10, 2022
INPP seminar on Parliament Refurbishment Projects
Organized by the administrative office of the Danish Parliament, we presented megaproject risk management best practices at the INPP seminar on Parliament Refurbishment Projects (yes, I have to admit, I had to smile a little at first too, but boy, are these projects complex.)
A range on countries, primarily across the European continent, have embarked on mega projects involving refurbishments on their national parliament buildings. These often involve listed buildings of national historic significance, mega size project scope and budget, major security and workplace considerations, and not least extraordinary political and public focus. The INPP network consist of parliament administrative representatives sharing knowledge across national projects.
Andreas Claus Hansen had been invited to give an inspirational talk and facilitate discussion on project risk management in these large, public construction projects. Focus will be on expanding the traditional view of operational project risk management to include contextual aspects of common relevance across nations.
You can read more about the INPP and its work here (currently chaired by Canada): https://www.tpsgc-pwgsc.gc.ca/citeparlementaire-parliamentaryprecinct/rehabilitation/vplt-ltvp/2018-2019/page-5-eng.html#p5-44
Congratulations Dr. Ali Shafqat!
Today, Ali Shafqat successfully defended his PhD thesis titled “Managing unplanned design iterations in new product development: An approach using risk management, resilience and organizational learning”.
Ali is one of the few and proud dual-degree PhD students between DTU and NTNU - so he will receive a degree from both organizations.
I am copying the popular science summary below. His thesis will eventually be available through the DTU Libraries.
Congratulations Ali and well done!!!
Popular Science Summary
Most new-product development (NPD) engineering projects encounter uncertainties from rapidly shifting market demands and developing technologies resulting in requirements change and the organization's ability to implement state-of-the-art processes reliably. This complexity triggers unplanned design iterations in the engineering design phase of the NPD process. These unplanned design iterations can be assumed to be the occurrence of a specific class of NPD project risks. Unplanned design iterations ultimately cause failures in reaching cost, schedule, quality, and customer satisfaction targets.
Today's organizations utilize traditional risk management practices to mitigate risks in NPD projects. However, even with mitigation actions in place, projects still struggle to manage NPD project risks.
Therefore, this PhD thesis explored the utilization of risk management, resilience, and organizational learning in managing unplanned design iterations risk in the design and development of new products.
To achieve this aim, we used different research methods including literature review, case study, crosssectional interviews and survey.
The empirical findings of this PhD thesis suggest that risk management processes must be tailored according to the contextual factors of the NPD projects to manage unplanned design iterations. The overlap of risk management-based and resilience-based approaches is required to treat known and unknown NPD project risks that may cause unplanned design iterations. The thesis's findings recommend developing a structured approach for selecting suitable learning methods for managing unplanned design iterations after their occurrence. Finally, the thesis's findings suggest establishing a systematic approach for capturing newly generated knowledge in the resolution of the unplanned design iterations employing organizational learning.
Networking Days on Hospital Construction 2021
We participated in the 2021 networking days for hospital construction in Denmark, a portfolio of publicly funded megaprojects. The day was organized by Danske Regioner, the Danish Regional Authorities.
This early semniar for members and managers from the regional authorities is held to facilitate sharing knowledge about hospital construction project with a special focus on the projects part of the 40 billion DKK investment in new 'super hospitals'.
Andreas Claus Hansen has been invited to give a talk on project risk management in large construction projects, and together with Mads Ole Aaris from the Danish Building and Property Agency they will introduced the risk management systems employed at the agency and point towards a possible future of client risk management for large construction projects.
Your can read more here: https://godtsygehusbyggeri.dk/
32nd IPMA World Congress: Project Resilience beyond Agile: From bad ideas to best practice
I was invited to speak at the 32nd IPMA World Congress. I will be speaking on the second day. Am copying the abstract of the talk below, hope to see you there!
The conference takes place in St. Petersburg, but is run in a hybrid format. Sign up here: https://ipma2021.world/
Abstract: Project Resilience Beyond Agility – From Bad Ideas to Best Practice
Josef Oehmen, Ph.D., MBA, is an Associate Professor at the Technical University of Denmark (DTU) . His research interests focus on managing large-scale systems engineering programs, particularly on the application of risk management, lean management and the associated organizational strategy processes. He is the founder and coordinator of the Engineering Systems RiskLab at DTU. Prior to DTU, Josef worked at MIT and ETH Zurich where he also obtained his PhD.
He has won numerous awards and scholarships, including regular keynote speaker invitations, teaching awards, the Shingo Prize for his work on Lean Program Management (2013), an appointment as Visiting Professor at the Technical University of Munich (2012), DAU Research Competition Winner (2012), INCOSE collaboration award (2012), a journal paper of the year award (2011), and the research award of the Department for Management, Technology and Economics at the ETH Zurich in 2009.
He co-founded DTU's Engineering Systems Group as well as MIT’s Consortium on Engineering Program Excellence (CEPE), co-chairs the INCOSE Lean Systems Engineering Working Group, and founded and co-chairs the Design Society’s Special Interest Group on Risk Management Processes and Methods.
Josef's current research focuses on developing and implementing paradigm-shifting risk management techniques in the design, construction and operation of Engineering Systems. He works on advanced (non-probabilistic) risk quantification methods, principles of resilient engineering project execution, lean risk management, and risk-based strategy implementation in engineering organizations.
His “academic home” is with the engineering design and operations management community, but the nature of his research is interdisciplinary. In particular, he works on the four related fields risk management; systems engineering program management; lean management; and technology strategy implementation.
In project management, we like to believe that if we only predict the future accurately enough, only plan detailed enough, and only execute disciplined enough, we will be successful. And if we are really professional, we add Agility practices to the mix.
It did not work out last time, but it surely will next time. In a large study of Scandinavian megaprojects, we asked a different question: What happens if we start being honest with ourselves and acknowledge that we will be wrong? I will present 4 take-aways to design resilient project execution models that rely neither on supernatural foresight nor dumb luck for success
9th DTU Risk Forum: Data, Risk, Decisions
We are in the final stages of putting the program together for the 9th DTU Risk Forum, this time in cooperation with IDA Risk and the University of Twente.
We will have a fantastic program for you, featuring industry speakers highlighting their journeys towards a more data-driven risk management, what to do when you just do not have data, and reflecting on how important data really is for decision makers (and how maybe we can make it a bit more important).
We will be joined by 35 risk management professionals from the Netherlands, so this will be a fantastic event.
Here is the link to the full program description & registration. The event is FREE OF CHARGE (thank you, University of Twente, for sponsoring this!!!)
MareSec 2021: Designing Resilient Critical Maritime Infrastructure
The DLR Institute of the Protection of Critical Maritime Infrastructure organized the first European Workshop on Maritime Systems Resilience. It was a fantastic event, bringing together speakers and participants from the European resilience community. The event covered social, organizational and technical subjects.
DTU was present with two papers and talks. One of them was delivered by Josef on “Design for Resilience”, using the integrated safety and security risk identification method UFoIE developed at DTU RiskLab. The UFoI-E method brings three components to the table:
An integrated system representation unifying cyber-, physical-, and cyber-physical elements of critical maritime systems, called the Uncontrolled Flow of Information and Energy Master Diagram (Guzman et al 2020)
An Accident Causation Model, considering cyber-, physical-, and cyber-physical factors (Guzman et al 2019)
A Scenario Builder for “Cyber-Physical Harm Analysis for Safety and Security” (CyPHASS) (Guzman et al 2021)
The core question is how we can leverage this analytical capability not “only” during system design and not “only” for minimizing hazards and vulnerabilities, but also a) throughout the construction and operation phases (in addition to the design phase), and b) for resisting and recovering from disruptions (not only preventing).
How much do we really understand about our safety and security scenarios, if two leading methods overlap by only a third? Source: Guzman et al 2021
One key insight from the talk were the results of our benchmarking of “our” UFoI-E method to identify complex safety-security cascade risks, versus the results obtained with the (more established) STPA-Extension method. Only about one third of the identified scenarios overlapped between the two methods. This raises the question of how confident we can really be in our understanding of critical safety risks in cyber-physical systems.
Management of unexpected events in complex engineering projects
This is a Danish-language event hosted by IDA Risk.
RiskLab Alumnus Morten Wied will give a talk together with Henrik K. Søndergaard on how to better deal with surprises in large projects, including a discussion of the Successive Planning Principle.
Below the full description of the event (in Danish:)
Håndtering af uforudsete hændelser i komplekse ingeniørprojekter
Hvorfor løber så mange ingeniørprojekter ind i overraskelser, og hvad kan vi gøre ved det?
I første del af arrangementet vil Morten Wied, DTU, fortælle om nærmere om problematikken om de typiske (og atypiske) uforudsete hændelser, der rammer komplekse ingeniørprojekter, og han vil skitsere et udvalg af mulige løsninger - og deres vigtigste begrænsninger.
Efterfølgende vil Henrik K. Søndergaard, HKS-CONSULT, gennemgå metoden, som er baseret på Successiv Princippet.
Henrik kommer bl.a. ind på baggrunden for metoden, hvad uforudset hændelser er, hvordan de kan estimeres i praksis, og hvilke udfordringer, der kan være.
Om oplægsholderne
Morten Wied er ph.d. fra DTU og konsulent og har været involveret i en lang række komplekse ingeniørprojekter indenfor energi, transport og aerospace i regi af bl.a. Femern Belt, LINC, Rambøll, Let’s Involve, DAMVAD, Risø og Videnskabsministeriet.
Henrik K. Søndergaard er civilingeniør, senior projektleder og IPMA B-certificeret projektleder, og har sit eget konsulentfirma HKS-CONSULT. Han har praktisk erfaring med store komplekse projekter med multikulturelle interessenter, og han brænder for, at vi får mere robuste budgetter og tidsplaner.
Wrong, but not failed - What 20 megaprojects taught us about resilience
Invited talk at the IPMA Global Best Practice Week 2021!
Resilience practices for large infrastructure projects
In project management, we like to believe that if we only predict the future accurately enough, only plan detailed enough, and only execute disciplined enough, we will be successful. It did not work out last time, but it surely will next time. In a large study of Scandinavian megaprojects, we asked a different question: What happens if we start being honest with ourselves and acknowledge that we will be wrong? We will be presenting 5 key practices to design resilient project execution models that rely neither on supernatural foresight nor dumb luck for success.
Join us here: https://bpw.ipma.world/
My talk is on the 29th, but the 120 EUR ticket gives you access to all three days. It is a very cool program if you are interested in resilience (really, I am actually officially impressed).
Meet the Scientist - Cost Risk Management in Construction
Andreas Claus Hansen, one of our RiskLab PhD students, is giving a talk at Værdibyg as part of their “Meet the Scientist” event series. Andreas will give an overview of challenges (and some best practices) when it comes to managing cost risks in construction projects.
You can sign up here: https://vaerdibyg.dk/arrangement/moed-forskerne3-om-budgetoverskridelser/
The event is in Danish. Below you find the (Danish language) summary:
Mød forskerne! – Om budgetoverskridelser og økonomisk risikostyring
Værdibyg inviterer her til det tredje møde i en serie af nye online-arrangementer, hvor du kan møde forskere og få indblik i deres viden om specifikke dele af eller temaer i byggeprocessen. Denne gang er emnet budgetoverskridelser og økonomisk risikostyring, og du kan her være med til at forme projektet!
Om forskningsprojektet
Bygningsstyrelsen og DTU Management er gået sammen om et erhvervs-PhD-projekt for at skabe ny viden om, hvorfor store byggeprojekter ofte går over budget, og hvad vi kan gøre for at undgå det. Projektet har fokus på økonomisk risikostyring og udforsker, hvordan vi kan skræddersy risikostyringsprocesserne i en organisation, så de understøtter arbejdet med at sikre, at projekterne kommer i mål som aftalt.
Forskningsprojektet bygger på organisationsteori samt teori fra projektledelse og risikoledelse kombineret med principperne kendt fra LEAN for at sikre, at risikostyringsprocesserne bliver værdiskabende og spiller sammen med både den permanente organisation og de midlertidige byggeprojekter.
Vær med til at forme projektet!
Da projektet først er påbegyndt i sommeren 2020 og løber til og med 2023, er der ingen publicerede resultater endnu. På dagen vil du få et indblik i tidligere resultater inden for samme felt, som projektet bygger videre på, samt de foreløbige læringer der er gjort i projektet indtil videre. Herudover sættes fokus på de dilemmaer, man skal forholde sig til, når man arbejder med økonomisk risikostyring på virkelighedens byggeprojekter. Der bliver også tid til en dialog med deltagerne, hvor dine spørgsmål og kommentarer kan være med til at forme det videre forskningsarbejde.
Arrangementet henvender sig til alle med interesse for arbejdet med budgettering og økonomisk risikostyring – både bygherrer, rådgivere, entreprenører og andre med interesse for emnet.
Program:
09:00: Velkomst ved Værdibyg
09:05: Oplæg ved Andreas Claus Hansen, Erhvervs-PhD, Bygningsstyrelsen og DTU Management
09:35: Spørgsmål og debat
10:00: Tak for i dag
Arrangementsansvarlig er: Morten Skaarup Jensen msj@vaerdibyg.dk
Building Resilient Projects
Invited talk at the Copenhagen Compliance’s Global Risk Management Day.
Please join us here: https://www.copenhagencompliance.com/2021-risk-management-day/agenda/
PhD Defense: Identification of Safety and Security Cascading Risks in Cyber-Physical Systems
Please join us for the PhD Defense of Nelson Humberto Carreras Guzman. For registration details, please see below.
You can find all of Nelson’s publications, including his PhD in a little while, here at the DTU Library.
The Urgency of Now: Strategies for Leading Resilience
Liisa speaks at TEDxDTU: What is your quest for resilience like?
In this talk, Prof. Liisa Välikangas introduces a framework for developing strategies for resilience, giving pioneering examples and provoking reflection.
The framework builds on cognitive, strategic and resource-based capabilities of a company. How do you see things others do not notice? How do you lead your organization from denial to action (that is, a cognitive urgency and curiosity)? How do you develop a portfolio of options and resource their experimentation (that is, strategic capability and innovative courage)? How to accelerate your company’s renewal cycle (that is, resourcing)?
The talk, initially published and highly cited in Harvard Business Review as Quest for Resilience, offers strategies and examples of the capabilities that add up to strategic resilience but require leadership. Are you ready?
Organizational resilience in times of uncertainty - Talk at NOCA
How do we ensure resilience in our organizations in a time where everything seems uncertain?
Organizational resilience is no longer just about exceptional events, accident prevention and crisis management. In the world of today we need to find a way to ensure that our organizations are not only resilient for the changes of tomorrow but for the entire future of our organization.
Join us at this NOCA event!
Liisa Välikangas will speak on:
Liisa will provide a more hands-on perspective and present proven survival strategies for how to ensure resilience.
The Urgency of Now: Strategies for Leading Resilience. The presentation will focus on learnings for leadership. First, the scene is set in terms of the resilience challenges at the moment. Then, we discuss and exemplify the strategies that leaders have available for their company’s survival but also for being able to thrive under uncertainty. We conclude by thinking about resilience as something leaders will need to master going forward: What does the quest for resilience mean for your leadership?
PhD Defense: Wrong, but not failed? Resilience and brittleness in complex engineering projects
Congratulations to Dr. Morten Wied, who today successfully defended his PhD thesis!
Morten today successfully defended his thesis "Wrong, but not failed: Resilience and brittleness in complex engineering projects."
In his thesis, Morten explores three research questions:
What distinguishes resilient from brittle systems, and what are the implications for complex engineering project management?
Why do some complex engineering projects fail, while others succeed, despite, or even because of, unexpected events?
How can complex engineering projects build resilience to unexpected events?
A big thank-you to his examiners Liisa Välikangas (DTU), Tyson Browning (TCU) and Derek Walker (RMIT).
You can find all of Morten's papers here.
Abstract of Mortens thesis:
Most complex engineering projects encounter unexpected events sometime in their life cycle. Effective opposition, economic turbulence, technical problems, partner pull-out, legislative change, new requirements, and early obsolescence are typical ‘plan breakers’. Adding to these are a plethora of oddball happenings, freak accidents, archaeological discoveries, rare natural phenomena, and sometimes malicious sabotage. Such events are common causes of underperformance or failure. Indeed, most complex engineering projects fail to meet the expectations that motivated them.
The traditional solution to this problem has been increasingly sophisticated up-front analysis and planning aimed at ‘de-risking’ projects and ‘de-biasing’ planners. There is little evidence, however, that these efforts have eliminated unexpected events, nor their impact on project performance. While individually unlikely, collectively, unexpected events occur with surprising regularity. This places project management at the horns of a dilemma. On the one hand, the requirement that planners must ‘be right’ about the future for projects succeed seems unattainable, in light of persistent unexpected events. On the other, relying on blind luck seems unacceptable in light of the high stakes involved.
Through the lens of resilient systems theory, this thesis explores an alternative to foresight and luck. This thesis is about the properties allowing some complex engineering projects to resist and recover from unexpected events, without the need to foresee them. Thus, the subject of this thesis is ‘successful failures’, i.e. projects that are ‘wrong, but not failed’. The aim of the thesis is to extend resilient systems theory to complex engineering projects, and, through this lens, explore non-anticipatory solutions to the problem of project planning, selection, and implementation. The investigation is guided by three overarching research questions:
RQ1: What distinguishes resilient from brittle systems, and what are the implications for complex engineering project management?
RQ2: Why do some complex engineering projects fail, while others succeed, despite, or even because of, unexpected events?
RQ3: How can complex engineering projects build resilience to unexpected events?
The three questions are investigated through the literature, retrospective and longitudinal case studies of complex projects, and interviews with experienced project managers.
In answer to the first question (RQ1), the thesis extends resilient systems theory to complex engineering project management. In doing so, the thesis challenges a paradigmatic assumption of traditional project management; that information precedes action. In most complex systems, this assumption does not hold. Rather, the most critical information typically surfaces through implementation and operation – not up-front analysis and planning. In actuality, action often precedes information. Indeed, action is often a prerequisite for dislodging information. This makes implementation and operation the primary information-producing processes. Paradoxically, the minimum requirement for learning the outcome of most complex engineering projects, is to implement them. Through the lens of resilience theory, the problem of unexpected events is thus reframed from one of inaccurate foresight to one of unrecognised ignorance, and the solution from one of improved foresight to one of general preparedness. Offering an alternative to foresight and luck, extended resilience theory delineates a ‘non-anticipatory’ paradigm of project management. It suggests that some projects have shared properties allowing them to resist and recover from unexpected events, without the need to foresee them. This shifts the emphasis of project management research from projects that are ‘right and successful’ or ‘wrong and failed’ to project that are ‘wrong, but not failed’.
In answer to the second question (RQ2), the thesis investigates the relationship between unexpected events and project performance in a range of real-world projects. The thesis finds that unexpected events cause projects to fail when projects lose superiority over competing alternatives foregone by their implementation, in the eyes of their stakeholders. Conversely, projects succeed despite or because of such events when they retain or regain such superiority. Thus, the thesis develops an essentially ‘opportunity cost’ view of project performance, finding formal performance criteria neither necessary nor sufficient for project success. On this basis, the thesis identifies a set of shared properties of ‘resilient projects’ able to succeed despite, or because of, unexpected events. Conversely, the thesis identifies properties of ‘brittle projects’, dependent on planners ‘being right’ about the future, or simply lucky. Departing from the traditional emphasis on the quality of plans and planners, these findings emphasise key characteristics of projects themselves.
In answer to the third question (RQ3), the thesis prescribes a combination of Socratic humility about the future and an ethos of ‘prudent action’. Through the lens of resilience theory, the emphasis of project management falls on action rather than information, i.e. on what we do rather than what we know. In this light, the properties of brittle projects function as diagnostic markers – warning signs of success-dependence on foresight or luck. Conversely, the properties of resilient projects offers a menu of possibilities for building resilience. Based on these, the thesis sets out practical prescriptions for building project resilience and discusses their implications for project planning, selection, and implementation.
The thesis makes six main contributes to the knowledge base on complex engineering project management – two corresponding to each research question: In answer to RQ1, the thesis develops a framework for analysing resilience and brittleness (C1), and develops a typology of resilient systems across disciplines and application domains (C2). In answer to RQ2, the thesis develops an opportunity cost view of project performance (C3), and identifies properties distinguishing projects able to succeed despite, or because of, unexpected events from projects which cannot (C4). In answer to RQ3, the thesis identifies a repertoire of approaches to managing uncertain projects across a range of industries and project types (C5), and outlines adaptation, acceptance and positioning as a principal solution space for building resilience to unexpected events (C6).
Overall, the thesis provides an alternative perspective on both the problem and the solution consistently poor performance of complex engineering projects, and raises a new set of questions for project planning, selection, and implementation. Prescriptively, the thesis emphasises preparedness over prediction, and prudent action over accurate information. Fundamentally, the message of the thesis is that we do not need to know the future to act wisely, but pretending to know the future when we do not, causes us to act foolishly.
7th IDA International Risk Management Conference
Missed the event? Not soo bad! See below!
Josef from DTUs RiskLab is co-organizing this years IDA International Risk Management Conference. It is Denmark’s premier risk management event, do not miss it! We have an all-star lineup for you!
Join us here: https://ida.dk/viden-og-netvaerk/netvaerk-oversigt/sikkerhed-brand-og-risiko/ida-risk
Have a look at the program below!
Keynote at the Risk & Resilience Festival of the University of Twente
Josef delivers a keynote on "risk as a feeling" and its impact on resilience management at this years Risk & Resilience Festival at the University of Twente, followed by a panel discussion. In particular, the talk will focus on how risk perception impacts our efforts to effectively combat the COVID-19 epidemic.
The risk and resilience festival is a fun annual event, if you are not on their mailing list, check it out here: https://www.utwente.nl/onderwijs/professional-learning-and-development/executive_opleidingen/master-risicomanagement/risk-and-resilience-festival/
The festival connects graduate level students and risk management professionals, and offers exciting content for both!
P.S.: This is how one of the participants summarized my talk. Maybe I didn’t need so many slides???
(c) University of Twente / cartoonistlive.nl